Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Baltic Dry Idex... A contrarian signal.

With all this chaos in the markets, including the crisis in Europe and China's downswing. There is a lot of talk out there abotu a double dip recession. Problem is that NA companies are doing very well with positive economic numbers coming out of the the States and Canada. Not sure where the overall direction of the market is heading or whether this is going to be more than just a steep correction one factor you have to consider is the Baltic Dry Index which is a barometer of economic activity. So far the BDI is continuing to rise in a contrarian signal against the declining market.

This is a great index for economic outlook and so far it is signaling not to worry as shipping has not slowed down during this period but infact increased against the latest declines in the market. Until this index starts tipping down, that this is infact just a steep correction. I doubt that this correction is over immediately and we start a new run, but talks of a double dip recession are a little early in my opinion. This debt crisis will have to get much bigger for the global economy to shut down again.

Another note, as long as the bailouts keep happening... the markets won't falter like they did in '08/'09, but the cost of these bailouts will be steep in the future taxing our kids too death through inflation and increased taxes to fund the greed, laziness, and entitlement attitudes of the baby boomer generation.

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